Several potential definitions of the transition from pandemic to endemic phase are possible (Exhibit 4). As we wrote in July 2020, one or more vaccines may receive US Food and Drug Administration Emergency Use Authorization before the end of 2020 (or early in 2021) and the granting of a Biologics License Application (also known as approval) during the first quarter of 2021. 4. Ben Adams, Merck has better luck with 2nd COVID-19 drug attempt as it sees a positive in early molnupiravir data, Fierce Biotech, March 8, 2021, fiercebiotech.com. Based on a range of likely vaccine scenarios and the fact that those with prior exposure to SARS-CoV-2 will still be eligible for vaccination, every ten percentage-point increase in seroprevalence could roughly translate into a one-month acceleration of the timeline to the epidemiological endpoint. Copyright 2023 The New Daily. Three main factors determine the real-world impact of any new SARS-CoV-2 variant: the extent to which it can evade the immunity developed by those who have been vaccinated or previously infected by other variants, its inherent infectiousness (often expressed as a higher basic reproduction number, or R0), and the severity of disease caused.55Ewen Callaway and Heidi Ledford, How bad is Omicron? V Chng Ti | Tin Tc Nam An | Early data paint a mixed picture of Omicrons evasion of vaccine-induced immunity. You've got a text to say you're COVID positive. Our stats expert Simon Kuestenmacher brings his analytical expertise to bear and predicts what 2022 will bring. Based on a reproduction number (R0) of 2.4 for the original strain and assuming that the herd immunity threshold can be approximated using the formula 1- (1/R0). As Baby Boomers leave the workforce its Gen Xs time to dominate company boards and C-level roles. Paul Griffin an infectious diseases physician and associate professor at the University of Queensland said communicating risk so that Australians could make informed choices remained a challenge. Studies have shown that countries that require bacille CalmetteGurin (BCG) vaccinations for tuberculosis correlate with lower rates of COVID-19 infections and related deaths, normalizing for certain key factors (such as epidemic stage, development, rurality, population density, and age structure).6Martha K. Berg et al., Mandated Bacillus Calmette-Gurin (BCG) vaccination predicts flattened curves for the spread of COVID-19, Science Advances, August 2020, Volume 6, Number 32, advances.sciencemag.org. We hope that our perspectives prove useful to leaders as they set policy and strategy; we will continue to update the series. Baby Boomers will act with a sense of urgency. Follow our Australia news live blog for the latest updates. Coronavirus (COVID-19) case numbers and statistics The Stats Guy: 22 predictions of what 2022 holds for Australia 1. What will Australia's fourth year of the COVID-19 pandemic look According to NOAAs Space Weather Prediction Center, the event will reach a level two out of five on the Geomagnetic Storm Impact scale. The proportion of unvaccinated people with past infections in a country is roughly correlated with its overall COVID-19 mortality, since unvaccinated but infected people have been at greatest risk of bad outcomes. A second factor is seasonality: the timing of seasonality-driven changes will be different in tropical locations and the Southern Hemisphere. An additional bedroom (the Zoom room) will be a permanent feature in the houses of knowledge workers. Three factors lead us to believe that timelines for herd immunity and transition toward normalcy in the United Kingdom will be similar to those in the United States. Lots has been written about this. Airline passenger volumes in the United States are much closer to prepandemic levels than they were a year ago48TSA checkpoint travel numbers (current year versus prior year(s)/same weekday), Transportation Security Administration, tsa.gov. doses for 80 percent of the global population, An optimistic scenario for the US response to COVID-19. The proportion of the population with effective immunity from COVID-19 vaccines is estimated from historical, reported vaccine administration data (both completed second doses and boosters); rates of vaccine effectiveness against Omicron reported in published literature; rates of waning vaccine immunity reported in published literature; and a generalized assumption that older individuals received COVID-19 vaccines before younger ones did. "We perhaps overdid it early on, so the risk perception was too high. While we dont yet know the full extent of waning immunity for Omicron, new evidence indicates that those who have received three doses of vaccine may benefit from medium-term protection.32Frauke Muecksch, Zijun Wang, Alice Cho, et al., Increased potency and breadth of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies after a third mRNA dose, BioRxiv, February 15, 2022, biorxiv.org. By and large, the six-month outlook in many countries is brighter than at any time in the past two years. SARS-CoV-2 variants, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, last updated March 16, 2021, cdc.gov. Original reporting and incisive analysis, direct from the Guardian every morning, 2023 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. Jason Gale and John Lauerman, How does Omicron challenge the treatments for Covid?, Bloomberg, December 9, 2021. Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics provide update, November 26, 2021; Pfizers novel COVID-19 oral antiviral treatment candidate, November 5, 2021. Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics provide update, November 26, 2021. Data shows that more and more people have concluded that the health risks of COVID-19 are not significant enough for them to change their behavior, either because of their vaccination status, their youth, or a desire to move on from the pandemic.26Sarah Feldman and Catherine Morris, Omicron worries America, but not enough to precipitate change, Ipsos, December 14, 2021, ipsos.com. Long-term drivers for expanded demand remain Populous emerging markets are still likely to want more air services Return to growth post-COVID but at a lower level Global RPKs forecast to be 32%-41% below expected levels in 2021 Global RPK medium term scenarios Pre-COVID forecast Current baseline COVID setback scenario risk that These scenarios only show us we can achieve in 2022 without stretching ourselves too much. The study, co-led by UNSWs Kirby Institute for Infection and Immunity in Society and the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance, analysed 5185 samples from blood donors between the age of 18 to 89 six weeks after the outbreaks peak. Vaccine rollout and adoption are faster than expected, Natural immunity is significantly higher than realized, More-transmissible variants lead to higher rates of natural immunity, US Biologics License Applications (BLA) with full approval by March/April 2021 or earlier, Approximately 39 months for manufacturing, distribution, and sufficient adoption to reach herd immunity, Manufacturing/supply-chain issues slow rollout, More-infectious variants raise the threshold for achieving herd immunity, Vaccine prevents disease progression but does not meaningfully reduce transmission, 56 million for phase 1c: ages 6574 (through 3/31/21), 202 million for phase 1c: other (4/1/217/31/21), the arrival, efficacy, and adoption of COVID-19 vaccinesthe biggest drivers in the timeline to herd immunity, the level of natural immunity in a population from exposure to COVID-19; in our estimate, between 90 million and 300 million people globally may have natural immunity, potential cross-immunity from exposure to other coronaviruses, potential partial immunity conferred by other immunizations, such as the bacille CalmetteGurin (BCG) vaccine for tuberculosis, regional differences in the ways that people mix, which will produce different thresholds for herd immunity, continued improvement by governments in the application of public-health interventions (such as test and trace) that dont significantly limit economic and social activities, compliance with public-health measures until we achieve herd immunity, accurate, widely available, rapid testing that effectively enables specific activities, continued advancements in therapeutics (including pre- and postexposure prophylactics) for and clinical management of COVID-19, leading to lower infection-fatality ratiossubstantial progress has already been made through a combination of effective drugs, such as dexamethasone and remdesivir, and changes in clinical management, public confidence that there arent significant long-term health consequences for those who recover from COVID-19. Extreme weather events will be occurring more frequently, and we must prepare for this. Javier Ibarrondo et al., Rapid decay of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in persons with mild COVID-19, New England Journal of Medicine, September 10, 2020, nejm.org; Helen Ward et al., Declining prevalence of antibody positivity to SARS-CoV-2: A community study of 365,000 adults, MedRxiv, October 27, 2020, medrxiv.org. The world doesnt care about internal political squabbles in Australia or whether a lockdown was too strict. Case controllers. Time traveller reveals predictions for 2022, including new Covid Whats more difficult to estimate is when a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 will emerge. Vaccination data are compiled from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the United States and Our World In Data for other countries. SeroTracker, last accessed March 15, 2021, serotracker.com. SARS-CoV-2 will continue to mutate under all scenarios, but most mutations do not lead to stable new forms of the virus with an evolutionary advantage.