Search Search. Over Indonesia, there is more rising air motion and lower surface pressure. La Nia refers to abnormally cold water temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial waters (5N-5S, 120-170W)] of the Pacific Ocean. Thus, at its peak, a moderate-strength La Nia is favored" this winter. Warmer than average temperatures and below average snowfall are in the forecast this winter, but I do think we will have more winter weather and snow this season than last year. Motor Gasoline Outlook and State MTBE Bans: April 2003: PDF: Winter Fuels Outlook: 2002-2003 (Selected graph and table updates) Atmospheric angular momentum is related to ENSO and also shows the impact of tropical forcing on tornado activity (Gensini and Marinaro, 2016). D.C. winter outlook 2021-22: Below normal snow, near normal Joe Bastardi, WeatherBell: Average temperatures and snowfall, Todd Crawford, Atmospheric G2 (formerly WSI): Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall (9.5 inches), Judah Cohen, Atmospheric Environmental Research: Average temperatures and slightly below-average snowfall (11.6 inches), Paul Dorian, CTFV (formerly Perspecta Weather): Average temperatures and near-average snowfall (15 inches), Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather: Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall (8.7 inches), Matt Rogers, Commodity Weather Group: Average temperatures and below-average snowfall (8.5 inches). The Nio-3.4 index has a 66% chance of reaching a value less than -1.0C duringNovember 2021 - January 2022, but only a 14% chance of being below -1.5C. StormReady Also, there is a tendency toward below-average snowfall over the mid-Atlantic, New England, and northern and central Plains, which is not seen during weak La Nia. Forecasts and model runs for the 2023 seasons will be posted here as they become available. Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook - National Oceanic and And 6 of the 11 events produced wet conditions in the Ohio Valley, which is slightly more than half, but far from a guarantee. Please try another search. I have serious doubts about that. There can be multiple MJO events within a season, and so the MJO is best described asintraseasonaltropical climate variability (i.e. The CPC winter temperature forecasts to the right show the most likely outcome where there is greater confidence, but this is not the only possible outcome. Imagine ENSO as a person riding astationaryexercise bike in the middle of a stage all day long. All right. Southerners, however, could be in store for a big dip in the temperature with the arrival of 2022, AccuWeather reports. Figure 2 shows the departure from average temperature and percent of normal precipitation across the state from October 2020 through March 2021. Overall, stronger La Nia events exert more influence on the winter climate pattern over western North America. Experts from the National Weather Service (NWS) in Seattle detailed an outlook for the upcoming winter season during the annual stakeholders meeting on Tuesday, forecasting above-average rainfall. We see winter getting off to a fast start and lean toward a colder-than-normal December. Spokane Farmers' Market moving to Coeur d'Alene Park in Browne's Addition, Bloomsday: 4 decades of growth, triumph and giving back to the Inland Northwest, Summer temps and record highs to stay most of this week, 'We're really on the cusp': Snowmelt expected to pick up steam this week with warmer temperatures, Washington drought improves for second straight week, Dreaming of a white Christmas? And like for seasonal temperature and precipitation, knowing the state of ENSO is a pretty reasonable place to start. Box edges mark the 25thand 75thpercentiles, and whiskers extend 1 and a half times the interquartile range. Warmer and drier winters are more likely during La Nia over more southern states, and this is exactly where seasonal snowfall tends to be reduced (4). These two boundaries define three categories: below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal. But just because Spokane's La Nia forecast wasn't perfectly on par with the textbooks, it doesn't mean the rest of the country's was off. During the positive phase of the AO, cold air is characteristically locked up over the Arctic by a strong polar vortex, and the mid-latitudes tend to be mild. Past Weather in Seattle, Washington, USA Yesterday or - TimeAndDate However, when there is enough cold air in place ahead of such storms, the precipitation can start as snow before usually changing over to an icy mix or plain rain. Although advances have been made in seasonal forecasting, there is still a great deal of uncertainty and limited skill in developing these outlooks. Expect 7-13 inches in the D.C. metro area and along the Interstate 95 corridor. Yeah, so the Farmer's Almanac has is wetter than normal and warmer than normal. This winter is expected to be a "weak" La Nina, with temperature departures only expected after 0.6 to 0.7 Celsius cooler than normal. Winter precipitation differences from average (inches) during La Nia winters dating back to 1950. This atmospheric disturbance is distinct from ENSO, which once established, is associated with persistent features that last several seasons or longer over the Pacific Ocean basin. We have been doing winter outlooks since 2005-2006 and have evaluated ourselves after the fact for the past 16 winters. Climate.gov figure based on analysis at CPC using Rutgers gridded snow data. How Much Snow to Expect: Doug's 2021-22 Winter Forecast 2022 Forecasts. During the last 10 years (optimal climate normal), 5 winters of these winters have been among the warmest third, 4 have been near-normal, and only 1 has among the coldest third (2013-14 winter). In fact, the winter of 2020-21 ended up being slightly warmer than normal by 1.5F. Arent weather forecasts only reliable out to about eight to 10 days? Preparedness Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Nick Bond: Well they claim that they're 80% accurate. 11, 2023 | Forecast Completed: Apr. Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife. And especially, you know, Labor Day weekend is coming up and you know, people may be getting out and camping and so forth with some hot weather and a lot of dry wood out there. Indeed, historic tornado outbreaks in1974,2008,and2011started during La Nia conditions. Observations We predict well have several accumulating snow events in the immediate area over the course of the winter, with a couple more in our colder suburbs. Instead of only looking at individual weather events, its important to consider the environmental cues for the outbreak of severe weather.